Thus, Putin's war may very well continue without Putin." "This holds even for a successor who opposed or did not openly support Putin's war prior to taking office. "Russia's current domestic political environment, as characterised by an intense blame game pitting political versus military leadership, would be especially dangerous for Putin’s successor and disincentive any move to abandon Russia's war aims in Ukraine and seek peace, at least in the short term. "Many new leaders behave like their predecessors and prove similarly unable or unwilling to cut the state's losses and seek peace," Cochran writes for War On The Rocks. So is the answer to the question in the title of this post 'no'? "Per the conventional wisdom, leaders responsible for starting a war are uniquely susceptible to blame and punishment for how a war ends and are thus prone to keep fighting even with little hope of victory." These risks, he says, are what may stop Putin voluntarily ending the war. It's a question at the heart of some analysis by Shawn Cochran, senior political scientist at the internationally respected RAND Corporation think tank.Ĭochran assessed the decision-making and behaviours of 85 wartime leaders and "I found that new leaders remain susceptible to the domestic pressures and risks associated with war termination, or they at least perceive themselves to be at risk and behave accordingly". If Vladimir Putin were to leave or be forced from power, would the war end? Here we round up some of this week's most interesting takes and analysis on the conflict.
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